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Monheim vs Union Nettetal — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Monheim
Monheim
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
10/23/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Monheim48%
×Draw22%
Union Nettetal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monheim
1.93
Union Nettetal
1.47

Monheim creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 74 away

creates per match

Monheim
1.62
Union Nettetal
1.34

allows per match

Monheim
1.59
Union Nettetal
2.23

finishing

Monheim+0.00on par
Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monheim ↓

Union Nettetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Monheim or draw
70%
Monheim or Union Nettetal
78%
Draw or Union Nettetal
52%

Winning margin

Monheim wins by 2+
27%
Union Nettetal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Monheim 1+ goals
85%
Monheim 2+ goals
57%
Monheim 3+ goals
30%
Union Nettetal 1+ goals
77%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
43%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Monheim (draw refunded)
62%
Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monheim at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monheim attack 1.62 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.93

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Monheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monheim scores more
48%
level
22%
Union Nettetal scores more
30%

Monheim at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monheim vs Union Nettetal

Monheim beat Union Nettetal 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion in Monheim am Rhein.