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Monheim vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Monheim
Monheim
CANC
13:00
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
4/11/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 35Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Monheim47%
×Draw23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monheim
1.79
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.40

Monheim creates 28% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 40 away

creates per match

Monheim
1.62
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

Monheim
1.59
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

Monheim+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monheim ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Monheim or draw
70%
Monheim or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
77%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
53%

Winning margin

Monheim wins by 2+
25%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Monheim 1+ goals
83%
Monheim 2+ goals
53%
Monheim 3+ goals
26%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
75%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
41%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Monheim (draw refunded)
61%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monheim at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monheim attack 1.62 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + Monheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Monheim scores more
47%
level
23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
30%

Monheim at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monheim vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Match Preview

Monheim face TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf on April 11, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Monheim host TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.