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Monheim vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Monheim
Monheim
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
3/5/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 27Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Monheim49%
×Draw21%
SF Hamborn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monheim
2.10
SF Hamborn
1.60

Monheim creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 37 away

creates per match

Monheim
1.62
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

Monheim
1.59
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

Monheim+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monheim ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Monheim or draw
70%
Monheim or SF Hamborn
79%
Draw or SF Hamborn
51%

Winning margin

Monheim wins by 2+
29%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Monheim 1+ goals
88%
Monheim 2+ goals
62%
Monheim 3+ goals
35%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
80%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
47%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Monheim (draw refunded)
62%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monheim at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monheim attack 1.62 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.10

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + Monheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Monheim scores more
49%
level
21%
SF Hamborn scores more
30%

Monheim at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monheim vs SF Hamborn

SF Hamborn beat Monheim 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion in Monheim am Rhein.