Monheim 3–2 SC Velbert: Result & Stats

Monheim

FT

3 – 2

SC Velbert

10/7/2020

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 7Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Monheim58%

×Draw20%

SC Velbert22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonheimExpected goals in this matchSC Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.29

Monheim

2.22

SC Velbert

1.29

Monheim creates 72% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 22 away

1.62

creates per match

1.00

1.59

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Monheim

1.62

SC Velbert

1.00

allows per match

Monheim

1.59

SC Velbert

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monheim+0.00on par

SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monheim ↓

SC Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Monheim or draw

78%

Monheim or SC Velbert

80%

Draw or SC Velbert

42%

Winning margin

Monheim wins by 2+

36%

SC Velbert wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Monheim 1+ goals

89%

Monheim 2+ goals

65%

Monheim 3+ goals

38%

SC Velbert 1+ goals

72%

SC Velbert 2+ goals

37%

SC Velbert 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monheim (draw refunded)

73%

SC Velbert (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monheim at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monheim attack 1.62 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.22

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Monheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Monheim scores more

58%

level

20%

SC Velbert scores more

22%

Monheim at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff