Monheim 2–3 Rather SV: Result & Stats

Monheim

2 – 3

Rather SV

8/5/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Monheim44%

×Draw20%

Rather SV37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonheimExpected goals in this matchRather SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

2.17

Monheim

2.38

Rather SV

2.17

Monheim creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

3.50

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Monheim

3.50

Rather SV

2.00

allows per match

Monheim

2.33

Rather SV

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monheim+0.00on par

Rather SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monheim ↓

Rather SV →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Monheim or draw

63%

Monheim or Rather SV

80%

Draw or Rather SV

56%

Winning margin

Monheim wins by 2+

26%

Rather SV wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Monheim 1+ goals

91%

Monheim 2+ goals

68%

Monheim 3+ goals

42%

Rather SV 1+ goals

89%

Rather SV 2+ goals

64%

Rather SV 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Monheim (draw refunded)

55%

Rather SV (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Monheim at home — creates 3.50, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Rather SV away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Monheim attack 3.50 + Rather SV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Rather SV attack 2.00 + Monheim defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Monheim scores more

44%

level

20%

Rather SV scores more

37%

Monheim at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff