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Monheim vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Monheim
Monheim
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
4/10/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 33Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Monheim58%
×Draw21%
FSV Duisburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monheim
2.16
FSV Duisburg
1.26

Monheim creates 71% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 42 away

creates per match

Monheim
1.62
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

Monheim
1.59
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

Monheim+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monheim ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Monheim or draw
78%
Monheim or FSV Duisburg
79%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
42%

Winning margin

Monheim wins by 2+
35%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Monheim 1+ goals
88%
Monheim 2+ goals
63%
Monheim 3+ goals
36%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
72%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
36%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Monheim (draw refunded)
73%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monheim at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monheim attack 1.62 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.16

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + Monheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Monheim scores more
58%
level
21%
FSV Duisburg scores more
22%

Monheim at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monheim vs FSV Duisburg

Monheim beat FSV Duisburg 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion in Monheim am Rhein.