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Monheim vs 1.FC Monchengladbach — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Monheim
Monheim
CANC
18:30
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
12/2/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 17Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Monheim64%
×Draw18%
1.FC Monchengladbach18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monheim
2.49
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.25

Monheim creates 99% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 22 away

creates per match

Monheim
1.62
1.FC Monchengladbach
0.91

allows per match

Monheim
1.59
1.FC Monchengladbach
3.36

finishing

Monheim+0.00on par
1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monheim ↓

1.FC Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Monheim or draw
82%
Monheim or 1.FC Monchengladbach
82%
Draw or 1.FC Monchengladbach
36%

Winning margin

Monheim wins by 2+
42%
1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Monheim 1+ goals
92%
Monheim 2+ goals
71%
Monheim 3+ goals
45%
1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
71%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
36%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Monheim (draw refunded)
78%
1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monheim at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

1.FC Monchengladbach away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monheim attack 1.62 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.49

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 0.91 + Monheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Monheim scores more
64%
level
18%
1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
18%

Monheim at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monheim face 1.FC Monchengladbach (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Monheim hosting 1.FC Monchengladbach. Match starts December 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Monheim host 1.FC Monchengladbach at Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.