Moneyfields W 2–3 Crawley Wasps W: Result & Stats

Moneyfields W

AET

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Wasps W

11/13/2022

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundPMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moneyfields W96%

×Draw3%

Crawley Wasps W1%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moneyfields WExpected goals in this matchCrawley Wasps W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

5.29

0.54

Moneyfields W

5.29

Crawley Wasps W

0.54

Moneyfields W creates 880% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

6.25

creates per match

0.33

0.75

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Moneyfields W

6.25

Crawley Wasps W

0.33

allows per match

Moneyfields W

0.75

Crawley Wasps W

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moneyfields W+0.00on par

Crawley Wasps W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneyfields W ↓

Crawley Wasps W →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–11%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2–06%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–013%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Moneyfields W or draw

99%

Moneyfields W or Crawley Wasps W

97%

Draw or Crawley Wasps W

Winning margin

Moneyfields W wins by 2+

89%

Crawley Wasps W wins by 2+

Team goals

Moneyfields W 1+ goals

99%

Moneyfields W 2+ goals

96%

Moneyfields W 3+ goals

86%

Crawley Wasps W 1+ goals

42%

Crawley Wasps W 2+ goals

10%

Crawley Wasps W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Moneyfields W (draw refunded)

99%

Crawley Wasps W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moneyfields W at home — creates 6.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Crawley Wasps W away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moneyfields W attack 6.25 + Crawley Wasps W defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 5.29

Crawley Wasps W attack 0.33 + Moneyfields W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 96%?"

Moneyfields W scores more

96%

level

Crawley Wasps W scores more

Moneyfields W at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Moneyfields W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff