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Moneni Pirates vs Ubombo Sugar — Premier League 2020

Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ubombo Sugar
Ubombo Sugar
5/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Moneni Pirates36%
×Draw29%
Ubombo Sugar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moneni Pirates
1.10
Ubombo Sugar
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 15 away

creates per match

Moneni Pirates
1.00
Ubombo Sugar
1.13

allows per match

Moneni Pirates
1.02
Ubombo Sugar
1.20

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par
Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Ubombo Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw
65%
Moneni Pirates or Ubombo Sugar
71%
Draw or Ubombo Sugar
64%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
15%
Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
67%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
30%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
10%
Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
51%
Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Ubombo Sugar away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ubombo Sugar attack 1.13 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more
36%
level
29%
Ubombo Sugar scores more
35%

Moneni Pirates at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Moneni Pirates 1–1 Ubombo Sugar

Moneni Pirates and Ubombo Sugar drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 7, 2026.