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Moneni Pirates vs Mhlume Peacemakers — Premier League 2020

Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
FT
1 – 1
Mhlume Peacemakers
Mhlume Peacemakers
7/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Moneni Pirates62%
×Draw23%
Mhlume Peacemakers16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moneni Pirates
1.80
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.78

Moneni Pirates creates 131% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 15 away

creates per match

Moneni Pirates
1.00
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.53

allows per match

Moneni Pirates
1.02
Mhlume Peacemakers
2.60

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par
Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Mhlume Peacemakers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw
84%
Moneni Pirates or Mhlume Peacemakers
77%
Draw or Mhlume Peacemakers
38%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
36%
Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
83%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
54%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
27%
Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals
54%
Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals
18%
Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
80%
Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Mhlume Peacemakers away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.53 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more
62%
level
23%
Mhlume Peacemakers scores more
16%

Moneni Pirates at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moneni Pirates vs Mhlume Peacemakers

Moneni Pirates and Mhlume Peacemakers drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.