Moneni Pirates 2–2 Manzini Wanderers

Moneni Pirates

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Manzini Wanderers

4/30/2022

Premier League · Round 20Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Moneni Pirates42%

×Draw28%

Manzini Wanderers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moneni PiratesExpected goals in this matchManzini Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.00

Moneni Pirates

1.26

Manzini Wanderers

1.00

Moneni Pirates creates 26% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 69 away

1.00

creates per match

0.99

1.02

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Moneni Pirates

1.00

Manzini Wanderers

0.99

allows per match

Moneni Pirates

1.02

Manzini Wanderers

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Manzini Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw

71%

Moneni Pirates or Manzini Wanderers

72%

Draw or Manzini Wanderers

58%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+

19%

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals

72%

Moneni Pirates 2+ goals

36%

Moneni Pirates 3+ goals

13%

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals

63%

Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals

26%

Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)

59%

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more

42%

level

28%

Manzini Wanderers scores more

29%

Moneni Pirates at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff