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Manzini Wanderers vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
FT
2 – 2
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
10/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Manzini Wanderers32%
×Draw26%
Moneni Pirates41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Wanderers
1.18
Moneni Pirates
1.38

Moneni Pirates creates 17% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 83 away

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.01
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.71
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw
59%
Manzini Wanderers or Moneni Pirates
74%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
68%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
13%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
69%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
33%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
12%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
75%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
40%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
44%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more
32%
level
26%
Moneni Pirates scores more
41%

Moneni Pirates at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manzini Wanderers vs Moneni Pirates

Manzini Wanderers and Moneni Pirates drew 2-2 in Premier League on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.