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Mondsee vs Union Rohrbach Berg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Mondsee
Mondsee
FT
1 – 2
Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
8/23/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4Mondseeland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mondsee60%
×Draw21%
Union Rohrbach Berg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondsee
2.04
Union Rohrbach Berg
1.04

Mondsee creates 96% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mondsee
1.95
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.73

allows per match

Mondsee
1.36
Union Rohrbach Berg
2.13

finishing

Mondsee+0.00on par
Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondsee ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mondsee or draw
81%
Mondsee or Union Rohrbach Berg
79%
Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg
40%

Winning margin

Mondsee wins by 2+
37%
Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mondsee 1+ goals
87%
Mondsee 2+ goals
60%
Mondsee 3+ goals
33%
Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
65%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
28%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mondsee (draw refunded)
76%
Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondsee at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondsee attack 1.95 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + Mondsee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mondsee scores more
60%
level
21%
Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
19%

Mondsee at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mondsee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Mondsee 1–2 Union Rohrbach Berg

Union Rohrbach Berg beat Mondsee 2-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Mondseeland Arena in Mondsee.