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Mondsee vs Stadl-Paura — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Mondsee
Mondsee
CANC
15:00
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
5/13/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 26BWT Arena Mondseeland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mondsee94%
×Draw4%
Stadl-Paura2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondsee
4.97
Stadl-Paura
0.68

Mondsee creates 631% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mondsee
1.95
Stadl-Paura
0.00

allows per match

Mondsee
1.36
Stadl-Paura
8.00

finishing

Mondsee+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondsee ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Mondsee or draw
98%
Mondsee or Stadl-Paura
96%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
6%

Winning margin

Mondsee wins by 2+
85%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Mondsee 1+ goals
99%
Mondsee 2+ goals
95%
Mondsee 3+ goals
83%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
49%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
15%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mondsee (draw refunded)
98%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondsee at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.00, concedes 8.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondsee attack 1.95 + Stadl-Paura defence 8.00 → ÷2 → 4.97

Stadl-Paura attack 0.00 + Mondsee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Mondsee scores more
94%
level
4%
Stadl-Paura scores more
2%

Mondsee at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Mondsee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mondsee vs Stadl-Paura — Match Preview

Mondsee face Stadl-Paura on May 13, 2023 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mondsee host Stadl-Paura at BWT Arena Mondseeland.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.