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Mondsee vs St. Valentin — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Mondsee
Mondsee
FT
3 – 1
St. Valentin
St. Valentin
9/1/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 5BWT Arena Mondseeland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Mondsee52%
×Draw22%
St. Valentin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondsee
2.00
St. Valentin
1.38

Mondsee creates 45% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mondsee
1.95
St. Valentin
1.40

allows per match

Mondsee
1.36
St. Valentin
2.04

finishing

Mondsee+0.00on par
St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondsee ↓

St. Valentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mondsee or draw
73%
Mondsee or St. Valentin
78%
Draw or St. Valentin
48%

Winning margin

Mondsee wins by 2+
30%
St. Valentin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mondsee 1+ goals
86%
Mondsee 2+ goals
59%
Mondsee 3+ goals
32%
St. Valentin 1+ goals
75%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
40%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mondsee (draw refunded)
66%
St. Valentin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondsee at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondsee attack 1.95 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.00

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Mondsee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mondsee scores more
52%
level
22%
St. Valentin scores more
27%

Mondsee at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mondsee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Mondsee 3–1 St. Valentin

Mondsee beat St. Valentin 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at BWT Arena Mondseeland in Mondsee.