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Mondercange vs Wiltz — Cup 2020

Mondercange
Mondercange
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 2
Wiltz
Wiltzadvanced
11/10/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade Communal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mondercange5%
×Draw9%
Wiltz85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondercange
0.89
Wiltz
3.67

Wiltz creates 312% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mondercange
0.60
Wiltz
3.73

allows per match

Mondercange
3.60
Wiltz
1.18

finishing

Mondercange+0.00on par
Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondercange ↓

Wiltz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–39%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Mondercange or draw
15%
Mondercange or Wiltz
91%
Draw or Wiltz
95%

Winning margin

Mondercange wins by 2+
2%
Wiltz wins by 2+
69%

Team goals

Mondercange 1+ goals
59%
Mondercange 2+ goals
22%
Mondercange 3+ goals
6%
Wiltz 1+ goals
97%
Wiltz 2+ goals
87%
Wiltz 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Mondercange (draw refunded)
6%
Wiltz (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondercange at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Wiltz away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondercange attack 0.60 + Wiltz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.89

Wiltz attack 3.73 + Mondercange defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Mondercange scores more
5%
level
9%
Wiltz scores more
85%

Wiltz at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Wiltz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mondercange vs Wiltz

Wiltz beat Mondercange 6-1 in Cup on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Communal in Mondercange.