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Mondercange vs UNA Strassen — National Division 2018

Mondercange
Mondercange
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
12/10/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 15Stade Communal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mondercange30%
×Draw25%
UNA Strassen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondercange
1.25
UNA Strassen
1.61

UNA Strassen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 112 away

creates per match

Mondercange
1.09
UNA Strassen
1.43

allows per match

Mondercange
1.80
UNA Strassen
1.41

finishing

Mondercange+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondercange ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mondercange or draw
54%
Mondercange or UNA Strassen
75%
Draw or UNA Strassen
70%

Winning margin

Mondercange wins by 2+
12%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mondercange 1+ goals
71%
Mondercange 2+ goals
36%
Mondercange 3+ goals
13%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
80%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
48%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mondercange (draw refunded)
39%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondercange at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondercange attack 1.09 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + Mondercange defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mondercange scores more
30%
level
25%
UNA Strassen scores more
46%

UNA Strassen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mondercange vs UNA Strassen

Mondercange and UNA Strassen drew 0-0 in National Division on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Communal in Mondercange.