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Mondercange vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

Mondercange
Mondercange
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
4/18/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 25Stade Communal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mondercange27%
×Draw24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondercange
1.22
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.71

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mondercange
1.09
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.62

allows per match

Mondercange
1.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.35

finishing

Mondercange+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondercange ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mondercange or draw
51%
Mondercange or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
76%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
73%

Winning margin

Mondercange wins by 2+
11%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mondercange 1+ goals
70%
Mondercange 2+ goals
34%
Mondercange 3+ goals
12%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
82%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
51%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mondercange (draw refunded)
36%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondercange at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondercange attack 1.09 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.62 + Mondercange defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mondercange scores more
27%
level
24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
49%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Mondercange 0–4 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat Mondercange 4-0 in National Division on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Communal in Mondercange.