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Mondercange vs Marisca Mersch — National Division 2018

Mondercange
Mondercange
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
9/17/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 6Stade Communal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mondercange42%
×Draw24%
Marisca Mersch34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondercange
1.61
Marisca Mersch
1.44

Mondercange creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mondercange
1.09
Marisca Mersch
1.07

allows per match

Mondercange
1.80
Marisca Mersch
2.13

finishing

Mondercange+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondercange ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mondercange or draw
66%
Mondercange or Marisca Mersch
76%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
58%

Winning margin

Mondercange wins by 2+
21%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mondercange 1+ goals
80%
Mondercange 2+ goals
48%
Mondercange 3+ goals
22%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
76%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
42%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mondercange (draw refunded)
55%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondercange at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondercange attack 1.09 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.61

Marisca Mersch attack 1.07 + Mondercange defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mondercange scores more
42%
level
24%
Marisca Mersch scores more
34%

Mondercange at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mondercange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Mondercange 1–2 Marisca Mersch

Marisca Mersch beat Mondercange 2-1 in National Division on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Communal in Mondercange.