Mondercange 1–0 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

Mondercange

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

F91 Dudelange

8/27/2023

National Division · Round 4Stade Communal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mondercange20%

×Draw21%

F91 Dudelange59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MondercangeExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.04

Mondercange

1.11

F91 Dudelange

2.04

F91 Dudelange creates 84% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 112 away

1.09

creates per match

2.29

1.80

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Mondercange

1.09

F91 Dudelange

2.29

allows per match

Mondercange

1.80

F91 Dudelange

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mondercange+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondercange ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mondercange or draw

41%

Mondercange or F91 Dudelange

79%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

80%

Winning margin

Mondercange wins by 2+

8%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Mondercange 1+ goals

67%

Mondercange 2+ goals

30%

Mondercange 3+ goals

10%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

87%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

60%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Mondercange (draw refunded)

26%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondercange at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondercange attack 1.09 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + Mondercange defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mondercange scores more

20%

level

21%

F91 Dudelange scores more

59%

F91 Dudelange at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff