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Mondercange vs AS Jeunesse Esch — National Division 2018

Mondercange
Mondercange
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
3/3/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 19Stade Communal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mondercange31%
×Draw25%
AS Jeunesse Esch44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondercange
1.27
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.56

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mondercange
1.09
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.31

allows per match

Mondercange
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.45

finishing

Mondercange+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondercange ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mondercange or draw
56%
Mondercange or AS Jeunesse Esch
75%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
69%

Winning margin

Mondercange wins by 2+
13%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mondercange 1+ goals
72%
Mondercange 2+ goals
36%
Mondercange 3+ goals
14%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
79%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
46%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mondercange (draw refunded)
41%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondercange at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondercange attack 1.09 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.31 + Mondercange defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mondercange scores more
31%
level
25%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
44%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Mondercange 0–2 AS Jeunesse Esch

AS Jeunesse Esch beat Mondercange 2-0 in National Division on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Communal in Mondercange.