Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Moncarapachense vs Oliveira Hospital — Liga 3 2021

Moncarapachense
Moncarapachense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
9/17/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 4Estádio José Arcanjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Moncarapachense31%
×Draw25%
Oliveira Hospital44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moncarapachense
1.25
Oliveira Hospital
1.54

Oliveira Hospital creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

creates per match

Moncarapachense
0.93
Oliveira Hospital
0.93

allows per match

Moncarapachense
2.14
Oliveira Hospital
1.57

finishing

Moncarapachense+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moncarapachense ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Moncarapachense or draw
56%
Moncarapachense or Oliveira Hospital
75%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
69%

Winning margin

Moncarapachense wins by 2+
13%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Moncarapachense 1+ goals
71%
Moncarapachense 2+ goals
36%
Moncarapachense 3+ goals
13%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
79%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
45%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Moncarapachense (draw refunded)
41%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moncarapachense at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moncarapachense attack 0.93 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + Moncarapachense defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moncarapachense scores more
31%
level
25%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
44%

Oliveira Hospital at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moncarapachense vs Oliveira Hospital

Oliveira Hospital beat Moncarapachense 2-1 in Liga 3 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Arcanjo in Olhão.