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Moncarapachense vs Guimaraes — Taça de Portugal 2018

Moncarapachense
Moncarapachense
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
10/22/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Moncarapachense39%
×Draw23%
Guimaraes38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moncarapachense
1.73
Guimaraes
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Moncarapachense
2.29
Guimaraes
2.25

allows per match

Moncarapachense
1.14
Guimaraes
1.17

finishing

Moncarapachense+0.00on par
Guimaraes+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moncarapachense ↓

Guimaraes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Moncarapachense or draw
62%
Moncarapachense or Guimaraes
77%
Draw or Guimaraes
61%

Winning margin

Moncarapachense wins by 2+
20%
Guimaraes wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Moncarapachense 1+ goals
82%
Moncarapachense 2+ goals
52%
Moncarapachense 3+ goals
25%
Guimaraes 1+ goals
82%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
50%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Moncarapachense (draw refunded)
51%
Guimaraes (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moncarapachense at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moncarapachense attack 2.29 + Guimaraes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Guimaraes attack 2.25 + Moncarapachense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Moncarapachense scores more
39%
level
23%
Guimaraes scores more
38%

Moncarapachense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Moncarapachense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moncarapachense vs Guimaraes

Guimaraes beat Moncarapachense 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Do Algarve in São João da Venda.