Monção 1–3 Oliveirense: Result & Stats

Monção

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Oliveirense

9/21/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 128Estádio Manuel Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Monção30%

×Draw24%

Oliveirense46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonçãoExpected goals in this matchOliveirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.71

Monção

1.35

Oliveirense

1.71

Oliveirense creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.75

1.67

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Monção

1.33

Oliveirense

1.75

allows per match

Monção

1.67

Oliveirense

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monção+0.00on par

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monção ↓

Oliveirense →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Monção or draw

54%

Monção or Oliveirense

76%

Draw or Oliveirense

70%

Winning margin

Monção wins by 2+

13%

Oliveirense wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Monção 1+ goals

74%

Monção 2+ goals

39%

Monção 3+ goals

15%

Oliveirense 1+ goals

82%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

51%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Monção (draw refunded)

40%

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Monção at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Oliveirense away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Monção attack 1.33 + Oliveirense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Oliveirense attack 1.75 + Monção defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Monção scores more

30%

level

24%

Oliveirense scores more

46%

Oliveirense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff