Monarcas 1–1 Venados FC: Result & Stats

Monarcas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Venados FC

11/10/2023

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - ReclasificaciónEstadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Monarcas51%

×Draw26%

Venados FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchVenados FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.96

Monarcas

1.54

Venados FC

0.96

Monarcas creates 60% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 129 away

1.50

creates per match

0.98

0.93

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Monarcas

1.50

Venados FC

0.98

allows per match

Monarcas

0.93

Venados FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Venados FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

76%

Monarcas or Venados FC

74%

Draw or Venados FC

49%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

26%

Venados FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

79%

Monarcas 2+ goals

45%

Monarcas 3+ goals

20%

Venados FC 1+ goals

62%

Venados FC 2+ goals

25%

Venados FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

68%

Venados FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.93 · 112 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.50 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Monarcas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monarcas scores more

51%

level

26%

Venados FC scores more

24%

Monarcas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff