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Monarcas vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tampico Madero
Tampico Maderoadvanced
12/4/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Monarcas46%
×Draw28%
Tampico Madero26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.33
Tampico Madero
0.92

Monarcas creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 64 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.50
Tampico Madero
0.91

allows per match

Monarcas
0.93
Tampico Madero
1.17

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
74%
Monarcas or Tampico Madero
72%
Draw or Tampico Madero
54%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
22%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
74%
Monarcas 2+ goals
38%
Monarcas 3+ goals
15%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
60%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
23%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
64%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.93 · 112 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.50 + Tampico Madero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tampico Madero attack 0.91 + Monarcas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Monarcas scores more
46%
level
28%
Tampico Madero scores more
26%

Monarcas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Tampico Madero

Tampico Madero beat Monarcas 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón in Morelia.