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Monarcas vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
É. Flores 45'
E. Del Ángel 23'
F. Gallegos 84'
M. Quiroga 63', 54'
10/5/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Monarcas44%
×Draw24%
Necaxa32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.63
Necaxa
1.36

Monarcas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 139 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.54
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Monarcas
1.46
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
68%
Monarcas or Necaxa
76%
Draw or Necaxa
56%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
22%
Necaxa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
80%
Monarcas 2+ goals
48%
Monarcas 3+ goals
22%
Necaxa 1+ goals
74%
Necaxa 2+ goals
39%
Necaxa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
58%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.54 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Monarcas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Monarcas scores more
44%
level
24%
Necaxa scores more
32%

Monarcas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. QuirogaNecaxaNecaxa · F
8.4

Match Events

23'
E. Del Ángel↳ L. Mendoza
44'
Juan Delgado
45'
É. Flores
54'
M. Quiroga↳ J. Angulo
58'
Maximiliano Salas
63'
M. Quiroga↳ J. Delgado
64'
M. Osuna← G. Lezcano
73'
R. Chávez← M. Salas
75'
Sebastián Vegas
77'
Fernando Aristeguieta
79'
M. Sansores← F. Aristeguieta
81'
K. Mercado← J. Angulo
83'
Mario Trejo
84'
F. Gallegos↳ C. Baeza
85'
S. Ferreira← E. Del Ángel
90'
Sebastián Ferreira
90+1'
E. Herrera← M. Quiroga

Possession

50%Monarcas

Shots

14Monarcas

Pass accuracy

50%Monarcas

Statistics

MonarcasNecaxa
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots13
3Corners5
16Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots13
7On Target4
5Off Target6
2Blocked3
5Inside Box5
9Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
391Total Passes396
316Accurate Passes322
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls13
4Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Necaxa

Necaxa beat Monarcas 3-2 in Liga MX on October 5, 2019.

Goals: E. Del Ángel (23'), É. Flores (45'), M. Quiroga (54', 63'), F. Gallegos (84').

Monarcas controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón in Morelia.