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Monarcas vs FC Juarez — Liga MX 2026

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Juarez
FC Juarez
L. Mendoza 90+6'
C. Ramírez 90+3'
F. Aristeguieta 90+1'
A. Rocha 73' (pen)
É. Flores 11'
S. Vegas 4'
D. Rolan 82' (pen)
11/1/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Monarcas48%
×Draw25%
FC Juarez27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.63
FC Juarez
1.15

Monarcas creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 118 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.47
FC Juarez
0.95

allows per match

Monarcas
1.34
FC Juarez
1.78

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

FC Juarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
73%
Monarcas or FC Juarez
75%
Draw or FC Juarez
52%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
25%
FC Juarez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
80%
Monarcas 2+ goals
48%
Monarcas 3+ goals
22%
FC Juarez 1+ goals
68%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
32%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
64%
FC Juarez (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.47 + FC Juarez defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Juarez attack 0.95 + Monarcas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monarcas scores more
48%
level
25%
FC Juarez scores more
27%

Monarcas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
L. MendozaMonarcasMonarcas · M
8.8

Match Events

4'
S. Vegas↳ L. Mendoza
11'
É. Flores↳ S. Ferreira
46'
E. Brambila← M. Fernández
59'
L. Villafáñez← É. Flores
72'
Angelo Sagal
73'
A. RochaPenalty
74'
F. Aristeguieta← S. Ferreira
80'
Sebastián Vegas
82'
C. Ramírez← M. Sansores
82'
D. RolanPenalty
85'
J. Noy← J. Intriago
85'
G. Hachen← F. Santos
87'
Aldo Rocha
90+1'
F. Aristeguieta↳ L. Mendoza
90+3'
C. Ramírez↳ L. Villafáñez
90+6'
L. Mendoza↳ J. Martínez

Possession

60%Monarcas

Shots

16Monarcas

Pass accuracy

52%Monarcas

Statistics

MonarcasFC
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots10
3Corners2
12Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots10
10On Target4
4Off Target3
2Blocked3
10Inside Box6
6Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
523Total Passes346
452Accurate Passes274
86%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Monarcas vs FC Juarez

Monarcas beat FC Juarez 6-1 in Liga MX on November 1, 2019.

Goals: S. Vegas (4'), É. Flores (11'), A. Rocha (73' pen), D. Rolan (82' pen), F. Aristeguieta (90+1'), C. Ramírez (90+3'), L. Mendoza (90+6').

Monarcas controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón in Morelia.