Monarcas 2–0 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monarcas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Tijuana

R. Ruidíaz 90+2'

C. Morales 20'

1/8/2017

Liga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Monarcas52%

×Draw24%

Club Tijuana24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.09

Monarcas

1.70

Club Tijuana

1.09

Monarcas creates 56% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 136 away

1.47

creates per match

0.85

1.34

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Monarcas

1.47

Club Tijuana

0.85

allows per match

Monarcas

1.34

Club Tijuana

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

76%

Monarcas or Club Tijuana

76%

Draw or Club Tijuana

48%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

28%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

82%

Monarcas 2+ goals

51%

Monarcas 3+ goals

24%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

66%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

30%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

68%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.93 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.47 + Club Tijuana defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

Club Tijuana attack 0.85 + Monarcas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Monarcas scores more

52%

level

24%

Club Tijuana scores more

24%

Monarcas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Ruidíaz

Monarcas · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

Gibran Lajud

20'

C. Morales↳ D. Valdés

25'

Guido Rodríguez

46'

H. Martín← P. Arriola

49'

Facundo Erpen

58'

J. Corona← J. Medina

66'

A. Rocha← J. Rodríguez

67'

C. Penilla← R. Vilchis

68'

Rodrigo Millar

73'

L. Rey← D. Valdés

73'

L. Chávez← I. Malcorra

80'

Mario Osuna

90+2'

R. Ruidíaz↳ R. Millar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasClub

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots17

2Corners8

13Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots17

5On Target4

4Off Target10

1Blocked3

3Inside Box9

7Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

414Total Passes379

337Accurate Passes293

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1