Club Tijuana 3–2 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Tijuana

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Monarcas

M. Laínez 79'

A. Nahuelpán 45+1'

A. Sepúlveda 16'

M. Osuna 58' (pen)

G. Lezcano 29'

9/26/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Club Tijuana45%

×Draw25%

Monarcas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.22

Club Tijuana

1.54

Monarcas

1.22

Club Tijuana creates 26% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 52 away

1.54

creates per match

1.27

1.17

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.54

Monarcas

1.27

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.17

Monarcas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

70%

Club Tijuana or Monarcas

75%

Draw or Monarcas

55%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

22%

Monarcas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

79%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

45%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

20%

Monarcas 1+ goals

70%

Monarcas 2+ goals

34%

Monarcas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

60%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 142 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.54 + Monarcas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Monarcas attack 1.27 + Club Tijuana defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

45%

level

25%

Monarcas scores more

30%

Club Tijuana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Sepúlveda

Club Tijuana · F

8.1

Match Events

8'

Kevin Balanta

16'

A. Sepúlveda↳ M. Bolaños

19'

29'

30'

45+1'

46'

E. Del Ángel← M. Sansores

46'

J. Martínez← C. Ramírez

58'

M. OsunaPenalty

69'

Efrain Velarde

77'

Sebastián Sosa

79'

M. Laínez↳ M. Bolaños

80'

Mauro Laínez

81'

I. Rivero← A. Sepúlveda

81'

S. Arce← A. Rocha

83'

W. Camacho← M. Laínez

90'

Sebastián Vegas

90'

Sagir Arce

90'

V. Loroña← M. Bolaños

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubMonarcas

Overview

47%Possession53%

20Total Shots6

5Corners1

13Fouls19

Shots

20Total Shots6

9On Target3

9Off Target1

2Blocked2

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

278Total Passes329

203Accurate Passes250

73%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls19

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1