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Monagas SC vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Monagas SC
Monagas SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
8/11/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Monumental de Maturín (Maturín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Monagas SC48%
×Draw25%
Zulia FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas SC
1.56
Zulia FC
1.09

Monagas SC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 66 away

creates per match

Monagas SC
1.51
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Monagas SC
1.13
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw
73%
Monagas SC or Zulia FC
75%
Draw or Zulia FC
52%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+
25%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals
79%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
46%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
21%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
66%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
30%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)
64%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monagas SC scores more
48%
level
25%
Zulia FC scores more
27%

Monagas SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monagas SC vs Zulia FC

Monagas SC beat Zulia FC 1-0 in Primera División on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín (Maturín).