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Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Primera División 2018

Monagas SC
Monagas SC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
3/1/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Monagas SC46%
×Draw25%
Estudiantes de Merida FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas SC
1.54
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.16

Monagas SC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 138 away

creates per match

Monagas SC
1.51
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.19

allows per match

Monagas SC
1.13
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.57

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw
71%
Monagas SC or Estudiantes de Merida FC
75%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
54%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+
23%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals
79%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
45%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
20%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
69%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
32%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)
62%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Monagas SC scores more
46%
level
25%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
29%

Monagas SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Monagas SC 3–2 Estudiantes de Merida FC

Monagas SC beat Estudiantes de Merida FC 3-2 in Primera División on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in Maturín.