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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Monagas SC — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Monagas SC
Monagas SC
11/3/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - Quadrangular - 3Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC46%
×Draw26%
Monagas SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.50
Monagas SC
1.13

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 134 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
Monagas SC
1.17

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
Monagas SC
1.49

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
71%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or Monagas SC
74%
Draw or Monagas SC
54%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
23%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
78%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
44%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
19%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
68%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
31%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
62%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Monagas SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Monagas SC attack 1.17 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
46%
level
26%
Monagas SC scores more
29%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Estudiantes de Merida FC 2–0 Monagas SC

Estudiantes de Merida FC beat Monagas SC 2-0 in Primera División on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida in Mérida.