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Monaco vs Rodez — Coupe de France 2018

Monaco
Monaco
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rodez
Rodezadvanced
1/7/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Louis II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Monaco23%
×Draw22%
Rodez55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monaco
1.18
Rodez
1.96

Rodez creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Monaco
1.00
Rodez
2.53

allows per match

Monaco
1.40
Rodez
1.35

finishing

Monaco+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monaco ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Monaco or draw
45%
Monaco or Rodez
78%
Draw or Rodez
77%

Winning margin

Monaco wins by 2+
9%
Rodez wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Monaco 1+ goals
69%
Monaco 2+ goals
33%
Monaco 3+ goals
12%
Rodez 1+ goals
86%
Rodez 2+ goals
58%
Rodez 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Monaco (draw refunded)
29%
Rodez (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monaco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Rodez away — creates 2.53, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monaco attack 1.00 + Rodez defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rodez attack 2.53 + Monaco defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Monaco scores more
23%
level
22%
Rodez scores more
55%

Rodez at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monaco vs Rodez

Monaco and Rodez drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Louis II in Monaco.