Monaco 3–0 Marseille: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Monaco

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Marseille

4/12/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Louis-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Monaco45%

×Draw24%

Marseille31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonacoExpected goals in this matchMarseille

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.35

Monaco

1.68

Marseille

1.35

Monaco creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.73

creates per match

1.54

1.17

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Monaco

1.73

Marseille

1.54

allows per match

Monaco

1.17

Marseille

1.62

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Monaco+0.01on par

Marseille+0.04on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monaco ↓

Marseille →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Monaco or draw

69%

Monaco or Marseille

76%

Draw or Marseille

55%

Winning margin

Monaco wins by 2+

24%

Marseille wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Monaco 1+ goals

81%

Monaco 2+ goals

50%

Monaco 3+ goals

24%

Marseille 1+ goals

74%

Marseille 2+ goals

39%

Marseille 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Monaco (draw refunded)

59%

Marseille (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monaco at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monaco attack 1.73 + Marseille defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Marseille attack 1.54 + Monaco defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Monaco scores more

45%

level

24%

Marseille scores more

31%

Monaco at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Monaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff