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Monaco vs Lorient — Ligue 1 2018

Monaco
Monaco
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lorient
Lorient
4/16/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 31Stade Louis II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Monaco52%
×Draw24%
Lorient24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monaco
1.71
Lorient
1.10

Monaco creates 55% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

Monaco
1.73
Lorient
1.04

allows per match

Monaco
1.17
Lorient
1.70

finishing

Monaco+0.01on par
Lorient-0.04on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monaco ↓

Lorient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monaco or draw
76%
Monaco or Lorient
76%
Draw or Lorient
48%

Winning margin

Monaco wins by 2+
28%
Lorient wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Monaco 1+ goals
82%
Monaco 2+ goals
51%
Monaco 3+ goals
24%
Lorient 1+ goals
67%
Lorient 2+ goals
30%
Lorient 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Monaco (draw refunded)
68%
Lorient (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monaco at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monaco attack 1.73 + Lorient defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lorient attack 1.04 + Monaco defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Monaco scores more
52%
level
24%
Lorient scores more
24%

Monaco at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Monaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monaco vs Lorient

Monaco beat Lorient 3-1 in Ligue 1 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Louis II in Monaco.