Monaco 1–1 Lens: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Monaco

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lens

D. Zakaria 84'

P. Frankowski 90+4' (pen)

9/1/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Louis-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Monaco41%

×Draw25%

Lens34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonacoExpected goals in this matchLens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.39

Monaco

1.54

Lens

1.39

Monaco creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.73

creates per match

1.60

1.17

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Monaco

1.73

Lens

1.60

allows per match

Monaco

1.17

Lens

1.35

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Monaco+0.01on par

Lens+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monaco ↓

Lens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Monaco or draw

66%

Monaco or Lens

75%

Draw or Lens

59%

Winning margin

Monaco wins by 2+

20%

Lens wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Monaco 1+ goals

79%

Monaco 2+ goals

45%

Monaco 3+ goals

20%

Lens 1+ goals

75%

Lens 2+ goals

40%

Lens 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Monaco (draw refunded)

54%

Lens (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monaco at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Lens away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monaco attack 1.73 + Lens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lens attack 1.60 + Monaco defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Monaco scores more

41%

level

25%

Lens scores more

34%

Monaco at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Zakaria

Monaco · M

7.6

Match Events

9'

Jonathan Gradit

34'

Ruben Aguilar

39'

Florian Sotoca

40'

David Pereira da Costa← A. Zaroury

46'

Vanderson← J. Teze

46'

R. Labeau Lascary← W. Saïd

54'

Vanderson

64'

H. Ojediran← A. Thomasson

65'

G. Ilenikhena← E. Ben Seghir

65'

B. Embolo← F. Balogun

65'

P. Frankowski← R. Aguilar

66'

Caio Henrique← K. Ouattara

68'

Remy Labeau Lascary

81'

A. Golovin← C. Mawissa

82'

Remy Labeau LascaryGoal cancelled

84'

D. Zakaria↳ Caio Henrique

85'

M. Satriano← J. Chávez

90+2'

Hamzat OjediranPenalty confirmed

90+4'

P. FrankowskiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonacoLens

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots12

1.03Expected Goals (xG)2.24

7Corners7

11Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target4

6Off Target5

5Blocked3

6Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

447Total Passes267

367Accurate Passes200

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.34Goals Prevented-0.34

Discipline

11Fouls21

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Monaco 1 – 1 Lens

Monaco and Lens drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on September 1, 2024.

Goals: D. Zakaria (84'), P. Frankowski (90+4' pen).

Monaco controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Louis-II in Monaco.

Monaco vs Lens — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Monaco 1 – 1 Lens