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Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United — Super League 2018

Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
3/2/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mombasa Elite33%
×Draw30%
Nairobi United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mombasa Elite
1.03
Nairobi United
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 37 away

creates per match

Mombasa Elite
1.36
Nairobi United
1.30

allows per match

Mombasa Elite
0.94
Nairobi United
0.70

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw
62%
Mombasa Elite or Nairobi United
70%
Draw or Nairobi United
67%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
13%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
64%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
28%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
9%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
67%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
31%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
47%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more
33%
level
30%
Nairobi United scores more
38%

Nairobi United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United

Nairobi United beat Mombasa Elite 2-1 in Super League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Serani Sports Ground in Mombasa.