Mombasa Elite 0–0 MCF: Result & Stats

Mombasa Elite

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

MCF

4/27/2024

Super League · Round 29Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mombasa Elite45%

×Draw28%

MCF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mombasa EliteExpected goals in this matchMCF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.91

Mombasa Elite

1.29

MCF

0.91

Mombasa Elite creates 42% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

1.36

creates per match

0.88

0.94

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Mombasa Elite

1.36

MCF

0.88

allows per match

Mombasa Elite

0.94

MCF

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

MCF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

MCF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw

74%

Mombasa Elite or MCF

72%

Draw or MCF

55%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+

21%

MCF wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals

72%

Mombasa Elite 2+ goals

37%

Mombasa Elite 3+ goals

14%

MCF 1+ goals

60%

MCF 2+ goals

23%

MCF 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)

63%

MCF (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

MCF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + MCF defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

MCF attack 0.88 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more

45%

level

28%

MCF scores more

26%

Mombasa Elite at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff