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Mombasa Elite vs Coastal Heroes — Super League 2018

Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
FT
0 – 0
Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
11/4/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Mombasa Elite57%
×Draw24%
Coastal Heroes19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mombasa Elite
1.73
Coastal Heroes
0.88

Mombasa Elite creates 97% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 72 away

creates per match

Mombasa Elite
1.36
Coastal Heroes
0.81

allows per match

Mombasa Elite
0.94
Coastal Heroes
2.11

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par
Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

Coastal Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw
81%
Mombasa Elite or Coastal Heroes
76%
Draw or Coastal Heroes
43%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
32%
Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
82%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
52%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
25%
Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
59%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
22%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
75%
Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more
57%
level
24%
Coastal Heroes scores more
19%

Mombasa Elite at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mombasa Elite 0–0 Coastal Heroes

Mombasa Elite and Coastal Heroes drew 0-0 in Super League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club in Mombasa.