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Mombasa Elite vs Assad — Super League 2018

Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Assad
Assad
1/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Mombasa Elite61%
×Draw22%
Assad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mombasa Elite
1.83
Assad
0.84

Mombasa Elite creates 118% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mombasa Elite
1.36
Assad
0.74

allows per match

Mombasa Elite
0.94
Assad
2.29

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par
Assad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

Assad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw
83%
Mombasa Elite or Assad
78%
Draw or Assad
39%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
35%
Assad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
84%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
54%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
28%
Assad 1+ goals
57%
Assad 2+ goals
21%
Assad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
78%
Assad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

Assad away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.29 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + Assad defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Assad attack 0.74 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more
61%
level
22%
Assad scores more
17%

Mombasa Elite at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mombasa Elite 2–0 Assad

Mombasa Elite beat Assad 2-0 in Super League on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club in Mombasa.