Molynes United 2–1 Faulkland: Result & Stats

Molynes United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Faulkland

4/9/2023

Premier League · Round 22Drewsland Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Molynes United46%

×Draw24%

Faulkland30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molynes UnitedExpected goals in this matchFaulkland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.25

Molynes United

1.62

Faulkland

1.25

Molynes United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 13 away

1.16

creates per match

0.62

1.88

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Molynes United

1.16

Faulkland

0.62

allows per match

Molynes United

1.88

Faulkland

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molynes United+0.00on par

Faulkland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molynes United ↓

Faulkland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Molynes United or draw

70%

Molynes United or Faulkland

76%

Draw or Faulkland

54%

Winning margin

Molynes United wins by 2+

24%

Faulkland wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Molynes United 1+ goals

80%

Molynes United 2+ goals

48%

Molynes United 3+ goals

22%

Faulkland 1+ goals

71%

Faulkland 2+ goals

36%

Faulkland 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Molynes United (draw refunded)

61%

Faulkland (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molynes United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.88 · 94 matches

Faulkland away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molynes United attack 1.16 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.62

Faulkland attack 0.62 + Molynes United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Molynes United scores more

46%

level

24%

Faulkland scores more

30%

Molynes United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Molynes United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff