Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Isloch Minsk R.

9/14/2025

Premier League · Round 21Molodechno Haradzki Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 424%

×Draw26%

FC Isloch Minsk R.50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Expected goals in this matchFC Isloch Minsk R.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.52

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

0.95

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.52

FC Isloch Minsk R. creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 127 away

0.53

creates per match

1.31

1.73

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

0.53

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.31

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.73

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw

50%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or FC Isloch Minsk R.

74%

Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.

76%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

8%

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

61%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

25%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

7%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals

78%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals

45%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

32%

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 0.53 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.95

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.31 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

24%

level

26%

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more

50%

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Isloch Minsk R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff