Mollerussa 0–2 Vilassar Mar: Result & Stats

Mollerussa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Vilassar Mar

3/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mollerussa41%

×Draw28%

Vilassar Mar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MollerussaExpected goals in this matchVilassar Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

Mollerussa

1.30

Vilassar Mar

1.10

Mollerussa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

1.41

creates per match

0.92

1.29

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Mollerussa

1.41

Vilassar Mar

0.92

allows per match

Mollerussa

1.29

Vilassar Mar

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Vilassar Mar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw

69%

Mollerussa or Vilassar Mar

72%

Draw or Vilassar Mar

59%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+

19%

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals

73%

Mollerussa 2+ goals

37%

Mollerussa 3+ goals

14%

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

67%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

30%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)

57%

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mollerussa scores more

41%

level

28%

Vilassar Mar scores more

31%

Mollerussa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mollerussa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff