Mollerussa 1–0 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Mollerussa

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Nil Sauret 81'

9/10/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mollerussa41%

×Draw26%

Pobla Mafumet32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MollerussaExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.18

Mollerussa

1.38

Pobla Mafumet

1.18

Mollerussa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

1.41

creates per match

1.07

1.29

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Mollerussa

1.41

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Mollerussa

1.29

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw

68%

Mollerussa or Pobla Mafumet

74%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

59%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+

19%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals

75%

Mollerussa 2+ goals

40%

Mollerussa 3+ goals

16%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

69%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

33%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)

56%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mollerussa scores more

41%

level

26%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

32%

Mollerussa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mollerussa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

71'

Jofre Graells← Adrián Felis

80'

Nil Sauret← Putxi

80'

Joel Porté← Joan Domingo

80'

David Montagut← Pouget

80'

Lorca← Teo Pozo

80'

Daniel García← Aleix Grabulosa

81'

Nil Sauret

82'

L. Igbineweka← Marcel Céspedes

87'

Mohammed Laghrissi← Genís Soldevila

Mollerussa

Pobla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jordi Cortés

71'▲Jofre Graells←▼Adrián Felis

80'▲Nil Sauret←▼Putxi

80'▲Joel Porté←▼Joan Domingo

87'▲Mohammed Laghrissi←▼Genís Soldevila

Mollerussa substitutes

GraellsSauretPortéLaghrissi

Manager: Adolfo Baines

80'▲David Montagut←▼Pouget

80'▲Lorca←▼Teo Pozo

80'▲Daniel García←▼Aleix Grabulosa

82'▲L. Igbineweka←▼Marcel Céspedes

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

MontagutLorcaGarcíaIgbineweka

Match Recap: Mollerussa vs Pobla Mafumet

Mollerussa beat Pobla Mafumet 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 10, 2023.

Goals: Nil Sauret (81').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Mollerussa.

Mollerussa vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mollerussa vs Pobla Mafumet