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Mollerussa vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Mollerussa
Mollerussa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Girona II
Girona II
5/10/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mollerussa34%
×Draw27%
Girona II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mollerussa
1.16
Girona II
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 78 away

creates per match

Mollerussa
1.41
Girona II
1.23

allows per match

Mollerussa
1.29
Girona II
0.91

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par
Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Girona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw
61%
Mollerussa or Girona II
73%
Draw or Girona II
66%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+
14%
Girona II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals
69%
Mollerussa 2+ goals
32%
Mollerussa 3+ goals
11%
Girona II 1+ goals
72%
Girona II 2+ goals
36%
Girona II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)
47%
Girona II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.16

Girona II attack 1.23 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mollerussa scores more
34%
level
27%
Girona II scores more
39%

Girona II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Mollerussa 1–1 Girona II

Mollerussa and Girona II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Mollerussa.