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Mollerussa vs Badalona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Mollerussa
Mollerussa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Badalona
Badalona
3/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mollerussa37%
×Draw28%
Badalona35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mollerussa
1.21
Badalona
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mollerussa
1.41
Badalona
1.05

allows per match

Mollerussa
1.29
Badalona
1.00

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par
Badalona+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Badalona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw
65%
Mollerussa or Badalona
72%
Draw or Badalona
63%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+
16%
Badalona wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals
70%
Mollerussa 2+ goals
34%
Mollerussa 3+ goals
12%
Badalona 1+ goals
69%
Badalona 2+ goals
33%
Badalona 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)
51%
Badalona (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Badalona away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Badalona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Badalona attack 1.05 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mollerussa scores more
37%
level
28%
Badalona scores more
35%

Mollerussa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mollerussa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Mollerussa 0–1 Badalona

Badalona beat Mollerussa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Mollerussa.