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Molinos El Pirata vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

Molinos El Pirata
Molinos El Pirata
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
2/18/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Cesar Flores Marigorda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Molinos El Pirata42%
×Draw28%
Real Garcilaso30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molinos El Pirata
1.27
Real Garcilaso
1.02

Molinos El Pirata creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 39 away

creates per match

Molinos El Pirata
0.94
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

Molinos El Pirata
1.06
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molinos El Pirata ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Molinos El Pirata or draw
70%
Molinos El Pirata or Real Garcilaso
72%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
58%

Winning margin

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+
19%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals
72%
Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals
36%
Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals
14%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
64%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
27%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)
59%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.94 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Molinos El Pirata scores more
42%
level
28%
Real Garcilaso scores more
30%

Molinos El Pirata at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Molinos El Pirata vs Real Garcilaso

Molinos El Pirata beat Real Garcilaso 2-1 in Primera División on February 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Cesar Flores Marigorda in Lambayeque.