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Moldova W vs Saudi Arabia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Moldova W
Moldova W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Saudi Arabia W
Saudi Arabia W
A. Sivolobova 22' (pen)
8/11/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Algebra Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moldova W34%
×Draw28%
Saudi Arabia W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova W
1.13
Saudi Arabia W
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Moldova W
1.17
Saudi Arabia W
1.25

allows per match

Moldova W
1.17
Saudi Arabia W
1.08

finishing

Moldova W+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova W ↓

Saudi Arabia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Moldova W or draw
62%
Moldova W or Saudi Arabia W
72%
Draw or Saudi Arabia W
66%

Winning margin

Moldova W wins by 2+
14%
Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Moldova W 1+ goals
68%
Moldova W 2+ goals
31%
Moldova W 3+ goals
11%
Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals
70%
Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals
34%
Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Moldova W (draw refunded)
47%
Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Saudi Arabia W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova W attack 1.17 + Saudi Arabia W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.25 + Moldova W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moldova W scores more
34%
level
28%
Saudi Arabia W scores more
38%

Saudi Arabia W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Saudi Arabia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. SivolobovaPenalty
46'
T. Al Ghamdi← T. Al Ghamdi
48'
52'
56'
M. Mohammed← M. Mohammed
56'
S. Tawfeeq← S. Tawfeeq
71'
74'
H. Alshamrani← H. Alshamrani
74'
M. Fatimah← M. Fatimah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moldova W vs Saudi Arabia W

Moldova W beat Saudi Arabia W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on August 11, 2024.

Goals: A. Sivolobova (22' pen).

The match was played at Algebra Sportzentrum in Mistelbach.