Moldova 0–4 Slovenia: Result & Stats

Moldova

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Slovenia

Haris Vučkić 55' (pen), 42', 37' (pen)

Sandi Lovrić 8'

10/14/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 4Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moldova35%

×Draw29%

Slovenia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldovaExpected goals in this matchSlovenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.10

Moldova

1.09

Slovenia

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

0.85

1.36

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Moldova

1.18

Slovenia

0.85

allows per match

Moldova

1.36

Slovenia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova+0.00on par

Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova ↓

Slovenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Moldova or draw

64%

Moldova or Slovenia

71%

Draw or Slovenia

65%

Winning margin

Moldova wins by 2+

14%

Slovenia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Moldova 1+ goals

66%

Moldova 2+ goals

30%

Moldova 3+ goals

10%

Slovenia 1+ goals

67%

Slovenia 2+ goals

30%

Slovenia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Moldova (draw refunded)

50%

Slovenia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova attack 1.18 + Slovenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Slovenia attack 0.85 + Moldova defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Moldova scores more

35%

level

29%

Slovenia scores more

36%

Slovenia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Haris Vučkić

Slovenia · F

8.9

Match Events

8'

Sandi Lovrić↳ Damjan Bohar

26'

Jaka Bijol

37'

Haris VučkićPenalty

40'

Ion Nicolaescu

42'

Haris Vučkić↳ Damjan Bohar

46'

Mihail Caimacov← Cătălin Carp

46'

Artur Crăciun← Victor Mudrac

54'

Sergiu Plătică

55'

Haris VučkićPenalty

59'

Nicolae Milinceanu← Sergiu Plătică

73'

Rajko Rep← Damjan Bohar

73'

Nemanja Mitrović← Miha Blažič

74'

Dan Taras← Artur Ioniță

78'

Amedej Vetrih← Sandi Lovrić

78'

Lovro Bizjak← Haris Vučkić

79'

Danu Spătaru← Ion Nicolaescu

83'

Dejan Petrović← Jaka Bijol

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldovaSlovenia

Overview

39%Possession61%

7Total Shots13

4Corners4

9Fouls21

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target8

3Off Target4

0Blocked1

3Inside Box11

4Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

377Total Passes590

293Accurate Passes502

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls21

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2